As summer 2025 approaches, many people are wondering: What does El Niño 2025 mean for our weather this year? Surprisingly, even though El Niño is in the headlines, experts say we’re actually in an ENSO-neutral phase—meaning we’re not in a typical El Niño or La Niña pattern right now.
In fact, there’s a 74% chance that this neutral phase will stick around from June to August.
What Exactly Does ENSO-Neutral Mean?
Let’s break it down. The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a natural climate cycle in the Pacific Ocean that can affect weather around the world. When we’re in a neutral phase—like now—it means sea surface temperatures are pretty close to normal. That means El Niño 2025 itself probably won’t trigger the big global weather swings we sometimes see.
But even in an ENSO-neutral year, that doesn’t mean weather will be calm or predictable. Other factors like climate change and regional weather patterns can still bring extreme heat, drought, or heavy rain.
What’s the Forecast for Summer 2025?
Hotter Than Usual Temperatures
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), summer 2025 is shaping up to be one of the hottest on record, despite the neutral phase of El Niño 2025. Almost the entire country, including Alaska, is expected to see above-normal temperatures.
This heat is being driven by a mix of climate change, warm sea surface temperatures, and stubborn high-pressure systems. Climate Central reports that 97% of 242 U.S. cities have seen summer temperatures rise since 1970.
Some of the biggest jumps are in places like Reno, Nevada (+11.3°F), Boise, Idaho (+6.3°F), and El Paso, Texas (+6.2°F).
Rainfall Patterns During El Niño 2025
Even though El Niño 2025 is in a neutral phase, we’re still likely to see big swings in rainfall across the country. The Southeast and parts of the East Coast could get more rain than usual, while the Northwest, Upper Mississippi Valley, and parts of the Plains might see drier conditions.
So far, NOAA expects:
- Above-average rain in the Southeast, the Mid-Atlantic, and into New England.
- Drier than normal conditions in the Pacific Northwest and parts of the central U.S.
What About Hurricanes?
Here’s the twist: Even with El Niño 2025 in a neutral phase, NOAA predicts a busier-than-average Atlantic hurricane season. They’re expecting 13 to 19 named storms, 6 to 10 hurricanes, and 3 to 5 major hurricanes.
Normally, a strong El Niño might weaken hurricanes due to wind shear, but since we’re in neutral territory, there’s less of that, which means more room for storms to grow.
Why Does This Matter?
The extreme heat expected this summer could be dangerous, especially for vulnerable groups like older adults, children, and people with health issues. Urban areas might feel the worst of it, thanks to the urban heat island effect, where buildings and roads soak up heat and make cities even hotter.
On top of that, dry conditions could lead to droughts, stress on water supplies, and a higher risk of wildfires in some areas. Power grids could also feel the strain as people crank up the air conditioning.